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Group 1 Caulfield Cup Preview 2024

3 minute read

We preview the first of the Spring majors- who will take out the Caulfield Cup?

WITHOUT A FIGHT (left, yellow silks) winning the Caulfield Cup at Caulfield in Australia.
WITHOUT A FIGHT (left, yellow silks) winning the Caulfield Cup at Caulfield in Australia. Picture: Racing Photos

A compressed and perhaps slightly thin Caulfield Cup this year, but I'm keen to bet and think we can have a good crack.

Looking at the speed, it should be on early with Deny Knowledge and Eliyass drawn wide and both pushing on from Sayedaty Sadaty kicking up from the inside and Duke De Sessa right there.

On our weight-adjusted ratings, Deny Knowledge brings the highest last start rating into this field. She ran to 116 on the Timeform scale last week and with 50.5kg she rates very well, but last week did seem like her perfect storm.

She got an easy lead on a firm, fast deck and now out to 2400m with plenty more pressure, I can't get her as short as she is in early markets and think she probably regresses just a touch. have her marked $13.

My clear favourite is Buckaroo, who even with 54.5kg comes in as the second-highest last start rating. His last three Timeform ratings have come in at 118, 122 and 123, and I have no issues with him out to 2400m.

He's been the fastest last 400m and 200m of his past two starts over 2000m and while he had a better run than Deny Knowledge in the Underwood, he did put a hole in them. His Turnbull Stakes run was outstanding, taking Via Sistina going to her absolute best to beat him, and he came from behind that horse to head her in the straight.

The ratings he's running are bang in line with Caulfield Cup winners to carry similar weights in year's past, and this looks a weaker edition. The draw is perfect for him, he's handled wet tracks overseas no worries and I think he's a genuine $4 chance, if not a bit shorter.

Eliyass was good in the Turnbull and is progressive but had a very good run on speed and while he was only 1.5 lengths off Buckaroo, he was only 0.4 lengths ahead of Duke De Sessa. I have him marked $10.

The Metropolitan form is right in the mix, and of the quinella, I think Zardozi has enough in her favour to be shorter than Land Legend. She meets him 3kg better at the weights for what very easily could've been her race on protest. Land Legend does get Zac Purton on which is worth plenty, but I fancy he could be a better Flemington chance.

Zardozi ran to 117 with Timeform last start which puts her right in the game here. She might need a slight new career peak but her three career peaks have come at 2400m+ so it's not unreasonable to suggest she could elevate again. I have her marked $9 so there's no real edge, but she is second favourite in my market.

Of all the others in the field, I think Muramasa might be the best roughie. Class is the concern and strictly speaking his raw ratings aren't good enough to win this, but he'll relish getting to 2400m and did run quite a good rating at the weights with 60kg last time.

He can improve again and did thump Duke De Sessa over 2600m last year which reads fairly well now. He gets a sweet draw and Daniel Moor comes into ride him having partnered him when he was flying last year. I have him marked $19 and there's 50-1 available.

The horse I'm against, not just because his name is too hard to say, is Sayedaty Sadaty. He's rated to a peak of 112 with Timeform which is below a horse like Valiant King last year who had the same profile as a 3yo colt with 50kg. Constantinople came over here rated much higher a few years ago and was also beaten. I have Sayedaty Sadaty marked more like a $41 chance, while the aforementioned Valiant King could be an improver and you'll probably get 100-1.

In summary, Buckaroo is very clearly on top and I think the price is fair. His ratings profile is very strong, I've got no issue with him running 2400m and the map is ideal. Zardozi is my second pick and a genuine threat while Eliyass and Deny Knowledge have claims but I think they're a bit short. Muramasa the best roughie.



Caulfield Cup 2024 Tips

Best bet: #2 Buckaroo
Danger: #13 Zardozi
Roughie: #12 Muramasa


Racing and Sports

Caulfield

Saturday, 19th October 2024

8
16:30
(local)

Sharp EIT Solutions Tristarc Stakes (G2)

Age: 4yo and up Sex: M Type: OPEN
AUD $301,800
1400m TURF SOFT
8
16:30
(local)
AUD $301,800
1400m SOFT

Sharp EIT Solutions Tristarc Stakes (G2)

Age: 4yo and up Sex: M Type: OPEN


FP Silk Horse, Age & Sex
Sire & Dam
Jockey
Trainer
SP
WT
1st 11. LADY IN PINK (AUS) 4yo M
PARIAH (AUS) - IRON LACE (AUS)
BEN ALLEN
L & T CORSTENS & W LARKIN
$17
55.5kg
Flemington Bloodstock (Mgr: J G Sawford), Mrs J S Mackay, R & C Legh Racing Pty Ltd (Mgr: R P Legh), Miss N S M Salmond, Mrs R J Morrissy, P J Nelson, Miss B Lundberg, Dr C M Duncan, Ms T P Rothwell, Mrs H Engelbrecht, Ms B Ogilvie, Ms R S Lamble, Miss B A St Claire, Miss R L Bichard & Mrs S McKee

Sales Information

2nd 2. REVOLUTIONARY MISS (AUS) 5yo M
RUSSIAN REVOLUTION (AUS) - PURCENTAGE (AUS)
ETHAN BROWN
CIARON MAHER
$4
57.5kg
Triple Crown Syndications, Nedicki (B Woodhead), Sluggo (C Robinson), Big Blue Stallions (J D Hope-Johnstone), J C Williams, C Johns, J A Forrest, J P Sennitt, B Nelson, R M Nicholson, M E Hardwick, W D'cruz, P B Haigh, Dr C A Pitt, J S Veivers, D N Hamlin, L C Crocicchio & B F Rippingale

Sales Information

3rd 9. MISS ARIA (AUS) 4yo M
ZOUSTAR (AUS) - BONARIA (AUS)
JYE MCNEIL
DANNY O'BRIEN
$5
55kg
R M Anderson & Mrs P Anderson
4th 12. MOLLYNICKERS (AUS) 4yo M
PIERRO (AUS) - JUST ONE MOMENT (AUS)
LUKE CURRIE
PETER G MOODY & KATHERINE COLEMAN
$26
55kg

Sales Information

5th 3. TIZ INVINCIBLE (AUS) 4yo M
I AM INVINCIBLE (AUS) - AMULETUM (GB)
BEN MELHAM
CIARON MAHER
$21
57.5kg

Sales Information

6th 1. QUINTESSA (NZ) 4yo M
SHAMUS AWARD (AUS) - CHAQUINTA (NZ)
ZAC PURTON
MARK WALKER
$11
58.5kg

Sales Information

7th 4. SKYBIRD (AUS) 4yo M
EXOSPHERE (AUS) - REAL DESIRE (AUS)
BEAU MERTENS
MITCHELL FREEDMAN
$3.2
57.5kg

Sales Information

8th 16. SO GLAMOROUS (AUS) 4yo M
SO YOU THINK (NZ) - GLAMOROUS MISS (AUS)
JORDAN CHILDS
GRAHAME BEGG
$19
55kg

Sales Information

9th 13. ANAHITA (AUS) 5yo M
SHALAA (IRE) - KAITLIN COVE (AUS)
JOAO MOREIRA
CHRIS WALLER
$17
55kg

Sales Information

10th 6. WROTE TO ARATAKI (NZ) 6yo M
WROTE (IRE) - GALLOPING GERTE (NZ)
JAMIE MOTT
MATTHEW WILLIAMS
$21
57.5kg
11th 5. SEONEE (AUS) 6yo M
WINNING RUPERT (AUS) - MOWGLI (AUS)
BILLY EGAN
PATRICK & MICHELLE PAYNE
$21
57.5kg

Sales Information

12th 15. CATAHOULA (AUS) 4yo M
SHALAA (IRE) - TUUSULA (AUS)
TIM CLARK
M, W & J HAWKES
$101
55kg

Sales Information

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