3 minute read
It’s the great debate raging a day out from our most famous horse race. So what is it about the Melbourne Cup favourite that has our leading form analysts and experts so concerned?
As eager punters launched further into Japanese horse Mer De Glace to become the first horse in almost 20 years to win the Cups double, a number of leading form analysts cast doubt on the Caulfield Cup winner's ability to run out a strong 3200m in Tuesday's $7.75 million Melbourne Cup.
Mer De Glace firmed into $6.50 TAB favouritism on Sunday off the back of drawing barrier two at Saturday's night draw.
But the fact the five-year-old has never raced beyond 2400m is a warning sign for a number of significant judges.
Sky Channel's Ron Dufficy said he had the utmost respect for the Japanese raider, but couldn't find a spot for the horse in his first four selections.
"I love horses with a turn of speed in a two-mile race and he has certainly got that," Dufficy said. "But I just think the Irish are there to take the sting out of him."
"They will just keep the pressure on and they will take the sting out of the Japanese horse. That's my question mark on him."
Herald Sun form guru and Sky Channel's David Gately said the 3200m trip was "absolutely" a concern for Mer De Glace.
"He travelled so well for so long (in the Caulfield Cup), so he is obviously pretty sharp," Gately said.
"But sometimes those turn of foot horses just don't stay. We saw that with So You Think, who looked a good thing (in 2010), bit was just outstayed."
Racing and Sports' Gary Crispe said the distance was not the only area of concern for him about Mer De Glace, saying history was also against the Caulfield Cup winner producing another big performance at Flemington.
"Even if he does run the 3200m, he has got a big weight (56kg), and the record of Caulfield Cup winners with a penalty is not really good," Crispe said.
"The last 12 have all missed a place (in the Melbourne Cup)."
Some though are firmly in his corner. Pushing up for him is Sydney bookmaker Rob Waterhouse who said Mer De Glace is the obvious winner.
"The one thing for certain is 3200m will be right up his alley," Waterhouse said.
"He has improved so much this season, he's really come of age. I think he will be very hard to beat and I most certainly won't be opposing him."
TAB's Nick Quinn also believes he's a champion and will prove too good for his rivals.
They are flying against the consensus with representatives from corporate bookmakers and some of the best known form experts in the land believing Mer De Glace is a risk.
BetSmart's Dan O'Sullivan also believes he's a query at the 3200m.
Bet Easy's Matthew Campbell said they would take the Japanese raider on believing 3200m would test him and they intended to take him on.
In an open Melbourne Cup only two runners are in single figures with TAB Sportsbet and they are Mer De Glace at $6.50 and Constantinople at $8.
Sportsbet's Simon Marshall believes Mer De Glace will struggle over 3200m as he looks too sharp for the distance.
"They'll have to sit on him until late and then use his turn of foot. If he gets exposed early I don't think he'll run out the 3200m."
I'd rather opt for a horse who can run the distance and to me Finche is the horse.
"He ran a great race to finish fourth in last year's Melbourne Cup and I think he's abetter horse after being with Chris Waller for 12 months.
"He loves Flemington. He runs out 3200m and he has a turn of foot. He has the same weight as last year."
BetSmart's Dan O'Sullivan believes Vow And Declare is the horse to beat.
"His Caulfield Cup second placing gives him the right lead up rating to be a key chance and everything about the run said to me he wants further.
"We saw how much he relished 3000m in the Tatt's Cup this June and the way he's built to this race in his last two starts suggests to me he could run a big new peak on Tuesday," O'Sullivan said.
LEO SCHLINK
1. Master Of Reality
2. Mer De Glace
3. Latrobe
4. Vow And Declare
Roughie: Il Paradiso
MICHAEL MANLEY
1. Vow And Declare
2. Cross Counter
3. Il Paridiso
4. Constantinople
Roughie: Latrobe
GLENN McFARLANE
1. Vow and Declare
2. Constantinople
3. Mer De Glace
4. Finche
Roughie: Latrobe
CHRIS VERNUCCIO
1. Southern France
2. Cross Counter
3. Constantinople
4 Il Paradiso
Roughie: Twilight Payment
SIMON MOY
1. Mustajeer
2. Constantinople
3. Youngstar
4 Finche
Roughie: Surprise Baby
NICK QUINN
TAB
1. Mer De Glace
2. Constantinople
3. Prince Of Arran
4. Cross Counter
Roughie: Il Paridiso
DAVID GATELY
Sky Racing/TAB
1. Constantinople
2. Vow And Declare
3. Il Paradiso
4. Finche
Roughie: Southern France
RON DUFFICY
Sky Racing
1. Il Paradiso
2. Surprise Baby
3. Vow And Declare
4. Master of Reality
Roughie: Raymond Tusk
MARK GUEST
Sky Racing
1. Cross Counter
2. Finche
3. Constantinople
4. Raymond Tusk
Roughie: Latrobe
GARY CRISPE
Racing And Sports Timeform
1. Constantinople
2. Finche
3. Vow And Declare
4. Downdraft
Roughie: Raymond Tusk
SIMON MARSHALL
Sportsbet
1. Finche
2. Il Paridiso
3. Prince Of Arran
4. Cross Counter
Roughie: Surprise Baby
MATTHEW CAMPBELL
Beteasy
1. Finche
2. Constantinople
3. Prince Of Arran
4. Il Paradiso
Roughie: Surprise Baby
BEN DORRIES
Racenet
1. Finche
2. Constantinople
3. Raymond Tusk
4. Vow And Declare
Roughie: Mirage Dancer
STEPHEN BRASSEL
Racenet
1. Constantinople
2. Il Paradiso
3. Southern France
4. Finche
Roughie: Raymond Tusk
RAY THOMAS
Daily Telegraph
1. Finche
2. Cross Counter
3. Mer De Glace
Roughie: Youngstar
NATHAN EXELBY
Courier Mail
1. Mer De Glace
2. Cross Counter
3. Finche
4. Constantinople
Roughie: Magic Wand
ROB WATERHOUSE
(Bookmaker)
1. Mer De Glace
2. Il Paradiso
3. Constantinople
4. Magic Wand
Roughie: The Chosen One
DANIEL O'SULLIVAN
(Betsmart)
1. Vow And Declare
2. Downdraft
3. Finche
4. Surprise Baby
Roughie: Prince Of Arran
Online article taken from the Herald Sun, published on Sunday, 3rd November 2019, Authors, Glenn McFarlane, Michael Manley and Nathan Exelby.
