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Scott Embry provides his Runner by Runner for the The Gold Rush at Ascot on Saturday, 14th December 2024. Brought to you by the TABtouch Blog.
1. Western Empire (59kg)
Trainer: Grant & Alana Williams
Jockey: Billy Egan
Barrier: 15
Has been rejuvenated and reinvented by Team Williams since returning to Western Australia. WATC Derby winner over 2400m as a 3 year old, Railway Stakes winner over 1600m as a 4 year old and now as a 7 year old he went in touted as the best local hope in the Winterbottom Stakes and unfortunately nothing really went right for him or for William Pike. It was an 'un-Pike like ride' deliberately staying off the fence and meant he ended up following 200-1 pop Crippalenko who simply got in his way in the home straight. He was a forgive run and out to 1400m will still have plenty of supporters. His last win was in the Belmont Sprint – WFA 1400m where he beat key rivals Searchin' Roc's, Magnificent Andy, Comfort Me, Red Can Man, Triple Missile and Valour Road. Willie Pike's injury is a huge blow for Western Empire (and WA racing) so it's up to Billy Egan to step up and deliver.
2. Valour Road (59kg)
Trainer: Simon Miller
Jockey: Luke Currie
Barrier: 12
Could this be the Swan Song of an illustrious career? February 2018 he steps out on debut and wins a Pinjarra Magic Millions, April 2018 he remains undefeated by winning a Karrakatta Plate, a Euclase Stakes victory in South Australia in May 2019, an HG Bolton Stakes in June 2019, a Miss Andretti Stakes in January 2020, a Prince of Wales Stakes in October 2020, a Hyperion Stakes in June 2021, an AJ Scahill Stakes in December 2021, an Idyllic Prince Stakes in August 2023, a Lee Steere Stakes in November 2023 – what a horse. Luke Currie heads to WA to ride him in the Gold Rush and for a 9-year-old his 'tick over' trial at Lark Hill was very sharp. Meets Aztec Ruler 1kg better from the Carbine Club and is proven a WFA commodity. Fingers crossed for a fairytale.
3. Comfort Me (59kg)
Trainer: Rhys Radford
Jockey: Holly Watson
Barrier: 18
Won a 72+ 1500 in November 2021 under Mitchell Pateman and then went 1078 days without another victory until finally breaking through for his first Black Type success in the Eurythmic Stakes (SWP 1400) in October this year. In that period, he finished second in two separate Railway Stakes, third in the first two editions of the Gold Rush, second in a Joey and a Northam Stakes in a long list of feature minors. After his first-up Eurythmic Stakes win he hit a cold rail on Lee Steere Day and then wrote himself into the history books with an incredible third Railway Stakes runner-up performance at the hands of Port Lockroy. Three weeks into the Gold Rush is the same profile as 2022 and 2023 and he's going just as well, if not better. Barrier? Again? Really?
4. Bustler (59kg)
Trainer: Neville Parnham
Jockey: Steven Parnham
Barrier: 9
Goes on the same preparation as 2023: Railway – Northerly – Gold Rush. In 2023, he won the Railway Stakes then finished fourth behind Dom To Shoot, Zaaki and Zipaway in the Northerly Stakes before backing up off 7 days and finishing fourth again in the Gold Rush behind Munhamek, Ripcord and Comfort Me. In 2024, he was a bit disappointing in the Railway when fishing 13th but rebounded well in the Northerly for fourth behind Light Infantry Man, Admiration Express and Socks Nation. 1800 back to 1400, off 7 days and regular rider Steve Parnham returns to the saddle, seemingly electing to ride him over Zipaway and Saloon Bar (E1). As consistent and honest as they come is Bustler.
5. Red Can Man (59kg)
Trainer: Steve Wolfe
Jockey: Jordan Turner
Barrier: 11
Ran fourth in the Winterbottom in 2023 and then fifth in the Gold Rush a fortnight later. In the 12 months since though he has raced like his best is behind him and he is ready for a deserving retirement. Showed a glimpse of his old form when third behind Western Empire and Mood Swings in the Northam Stakes but ultimately, he was still beaten a 3L margin and was very well suited in the race under SWP. Beaten 6L in the Prince of Wales and then beaten 6.5L at 100-1 in the Winterbottom. He's been an incredible performer for SJ Wolfe racing and connections over many, many seasons – but that's past tense, not present tense. He'll keep ballooning in price between Tuesday & Saturday.
6. Hot Zed (59kg)
Trainer: Lou Luciani
Jockey: Jason Whiting
Barrier: 1
Winterbottom Runner by Runner Preview – "Underestimate Hot Zed and brave the wrath of Lou Luciani" – well, wasn't that run a fortnight ago just the perfect example of the horse he is. A perennially under-rated galloper who gives 110% every time he goes to the races. Won a Colonel Reeves from three deep the trip at $13, won a Pinjarra Classic against the pattern under 59kg at double figures, won a Scenic Blast Stakes at 20-1, it's the story of a no glitz, no glam, tradesman. A WFA Group One Winterbottom Placing as a 7 year old at 100-1 is a career best performance and from barrier 1 or barrier 16 – he'd run above market expectations – that's just Hot Zed.
7. Ripcord (59kg)
Trainer: Luke Fernie
Jockey: Clint Johnson-Porter
Barrier: 19
One of the more interesting runners to try and assess. Won the Perth Stakes on debut as a 2-year-old off only a 400m jump out (LK Fernie things) before running third in a Karrakatta Plate at his second career outing behind Super Smink and Live To Tell. Gunned down Oscar's Fortune in a thrilling Placid Ark Stakes as a 3-year-old before taking on the older horses at WFA level in the Winterbottom when third to Overpass and Oscar's Fortune and then again in the Gold Rush when second to Munhamek. Has raced below his best as a 4-year-old and returns from a Victorian trip where nothing went right for him. Trialled like the Ripcord of old but you have to have trust issues and from the gate his task looks increasingly difficult.
8. Magnificent Andy (59kg)
Trainer: Stephen Miller
Jockey: Brad Parnham
Barrier: 4
Hannans Handicap, Joey, Hyperion Stakes – they're decent races, but compared to a Gold Rush, they're very much off-Broadway. The Hannans is a Listed Handicap, the Joey is WFA, but on a day where all the top quality sprinters are racing in the Quokka, and so the Hyperion becomes his peak performance, a 1600m Winter WFA. He beat Searchin' Roc's and Western Empire that day, but just feel like if he was to win one of the Pinnacles Features it was under handicap conditions in the Railway Stakes. Comfort Me and Super Smink beat him in the Eurythmic and the Railway, Bustler beat him in the Lee Steere Stakes. Big winner from the barrier draw and looming as a genuine contender.
9. Triple Missile (59kg)
Trainer: Donna Riordan
Jockey: Joseph Azzopardi
Barrier: 7
Resumed in the Asian Beau Stakes when finishing fourth behind Super Smink, Luvnwar and Aztec Ruler and from that event he meets Super Smink 2.5kg worse at the weights for being beaten 1.8L but Aztec Ruler 2.5kg better for being beaten 0.4L. Weights wise it's hard to see him turning the tables on Super Smink, but if you're an Aztec Ruler fan then you must be making a case for Triple Missile. In the Railway I gave him none – thought he was a genuine 500-1 impossibility, but credit where it's due, he went lengths better than I thought he would running the fourth fastest L600. However, he now (again) meets Super Smink 2kg worse, Comfort Me 1.5kg worse, Magnificent Andy 2kg worse and Bustler 3kg worse from the Railway to the Gold Rush. Top half?
10. Zipaway (59kg)
Trainer: Neville Parnham
Jockey: Laqdar Ramoly
Barrier: 2
The 2023 WA Guineas winner and Northerly Stakes third-place getter was a somewhat surprise acceptor in the Gold Rush on Monday with most anticipating that he would progress to the WFA Van Heemst Stakes over 2100m in a fortnight. Neville Parnham instead backs him up off 7 days and drops him back to 1400m, the distance of the Lee Steere Stakes, where first-up he caught the eye into a fast finishing fourth behind Casino Seventeen and stablemate Bustler. Get the feeling they've been chasing their tail the whole way through the preparation and the fact that Steve Parnham jumps off to reunite with Bustler suggests that he feels like the stablemate is the better winning chance.
11. Mojo Rythym (59kg)
Trainer: Mitchell Pateman
Jockey: Patrick Carbery
Barrier: 10
2023 RJ Peters Stakes win, 7 days into the Railway. Repeat. 2024 RJ Peters Stakes win, 7 days into the Railway. Sixth in the 2024 Railway beaten 1.4L, then even better last weekend when fifth beaten 2.5L in the Northerly. He's going around at 100-1 in Group One Races and producing results like a 10-1 chance. Quite simply, Mitchell Pateman couldn't have him going any better and Patrick Carbery couldn't be riding him any better. However, equally as blunt, it's still not quite good enough to win against the very best. No Port Lockroy, no Light Infantry Man, an exclusively local feature – gives horses like Mojo a fighting chance of a crowning glory.
12. Rope Them In (59kg)
Trainer: Steve Wolfe
Jockey: Shaun McGruddy
Barrier: 20
He is the new kid on the block and could well emerge from the Pinnacles as WA's new #1 Sprinter. Veteran trainer Steve Wolfe put the blinkers on his newest stable star in the Colonel Reeves as he chased ballot exemption from the Winterbottom Stakes and it worked with great effect, sprinting clear late for an emphatic near 1L win. Went to WFA company for the first time in the Winterbottom Stakes and was outrageously good into fourth behind Overpass, Maharba and Hot Zed. He has announced himself and to many he will loom as the most attractive betting proposition in the 2024 Gold Rush. Looked like a great race for him on paper, until 4:45pm on Tuesday when he drew 20/20. Will need the perfect ride from Shooter McGruddy.
13. Aztec Ruler (59kg)
Trainer: Stefan Vahala
Jockey: Jarrad Noske
Barrier: 16
Won the 2024 Bunbury Stakes on the 54kg limit and on first look when you reel off some of the names from the beaten brigade in that event the form just doesn't look to stack up – Red Fifty Three, Mood Swings, Weaponson; but then you get to those midfield and worse and it includes Mojo Rhythm, Hot Zed, Searchin' Roc's – so maybe it's a harsh first instinct. He's been in great form all campaign, luckless third in the Asian Beau when wide throughout behind Super Smink, held tight in a blanket finish in the RJ Peters and then broke through 7 days later in the Carbine Club beating Valour Road and Devoted. It's a massive step from Listed SWP to WFA but 1400m is his sweet spot and Stef Vahala couldn't have him going any better.
14. Super Smink (57kg)
Trainer: Daniel Morton
Jockey: Chris Parnham
Barrier: 5
Goes on the same preparation as Bustler – Railway, Northerly, Gold Rush – and backs up off 7 days for the first time in her career. After winning the Asian Beau she came into All-In Favourite for the Railway (before we knew which Eastern States invaders were taking their place) and then she produced a sectionally and visually sensational run into third behind Port Lockroy and Comfort Me, clocking the fastest L800, 600 & 400 of the race bursting through traffic. Last week in the Northerly she never got into the contest, settling rearwards with nothing to follow and then was relatively untested in the home straight behind a wall of horses. 1400m more her go than 1800m and worth remembering she did jump fixed odds favourite last week.
15. Searchin' Roc's (57kg)
Trainer: Jim Taylor
Jockey: Shaun O'Donnell
Barrier: 14
Belgravia Stakes, Burgess Queen Stakes, Champion Fillies, Belmont Oaks, RJ Peters, Farnley Stakes, Idyllic Prince Stakes – it's a ripper CV for a proper mare. Each time they've tested her at the elite level she's been just a length or two behind the best, beaten 3L in a Kingston Town as a 3 year old filly (2021), beaten 4.5L in the Railway (2022), beaten 3.7L in the Northerly (2022), beaten 4.7L in the Railway (2023), beaten 7.2L in the Northerly (2023) and beaten 1.9L in the Railway (2024). Like the approach taken by Jim Taylor to ignore the temptation of the Northerly and instead go 21 days between runs and back to 1400m on the fresh side. Always there abouts but yet again maps to be three/four deep working.
16. Wind And The Lion (54kg)
Trainer: Sean & Jake Casey
Jockey: Lucy Fiore
Barrier: 6
The sole 3 year old in the field who was ballot exempt from the Winterbottom Stakes and the Gold Rush having won the Placid Ark. Sean & Jake Casey and owner Waly Daly made the decision to avoid the $1.5m temptation of the Winterbottom Stakes and dodge Overpass (hindsight says that was 100% the right decision) and race in the Sir Ernest Lee-Steere Classic on the same day against his own age group. He carried 59kg under the SWP conditions and while a beaten favourite he was strong enough to justify going to the Gold Rush where he drops down to the 54kg limit and looks to emulate the deeds of the 2023 Placid Ark Stakes winner in Ripcord who ran second in this race 12 months ago. Brings a real X-Factor and couldn't have asked for a better gate.
SELECTION: WESTERN EMPIRE
Arguably the biggest form consideration for Gold Rush Day is the rail position. We raced at the True on Lee Steere Stakes Day and every single winner came 3+ wide and down the middle of the track for victory. With that in mind the barrier might become ideal for a Western Empire type. He'll jump from ~12 after scratchings and if Billy Egan finds the right back to follow (Searchin' Roc's/Valour Road) he should get the right drag into the race and find himself in the right part of the track on straightening.
