3 minute read
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We've got free betting tips, plus course and player advice for golf events on the PGA and European Tour thanks to Betfair's Golf Prediction Model. It is a proven source for big-priced winners for several years, tipping several big-priced winners and winning at +63.7% POT for the 2022 calendar year. Find the latest golf betting tips and expert advice every week on the Betfair Hub!
Last Week's Event
Punting Santa came early last week as we bagged a massive odds winner. Journeyman Shaun Norris was the top play of the week, with his $75 starting price offering huge value according to the model. He looked no shot on Sunday morning as he started 6 shots off the pace and still looked unlikely after signing for a 13-under with a number of players still out on the course. But the final stretch was too much for his peers, who crumbled under the pressure to deliver the column a well overdue big money victory.
THIS WEEK'S EVENT
I'll keep the Euro Christmas cheer rolling with coverage of the year's final event, as the tiny island of Mauritius hosts a surprisingly well funded tournament. The Mont Choisy Le Golf track played host back in 2022 and the 7,051 yard par-72 has been dusted off for this edition. It's a short, but exposed track, which a big hitter could really get hold of in favourable conditions.
Despite the length, the track managed to jam in five par 5s along with a number of driveable par 4s. The leaderboard back in 2022 was made up almost exclusively by the longer drivers in the field. About the only thing that can stop the big hitters is the wind. The forecast looks like Thursday and Sunday will be the toughest days from a weather perspective and the Friday PM slot will offer the best chance for scoring.
COURSE HISTORY AND FIT
We've only seen this track once in top flight play and 2022's victor Antoine Rozner stands out at the top of the overperformers here. His victory amounted to a near four shot per round outperformance of his baseline skill which, despite the tiny sample, is big enough for him to take in a decent bump to his baseline skill level here. Other overperformers in 2022 were Dylan Mostert and Pierre Pineau who'll take in similar overlays to Rozner.
BETTING MARKETS
Reasonable volume flowing through despite the average field and the early money was all for Rozner with the market keen on his recent form turnaround and clear affinity for the track. Surprisingly he's drifted since open and is moving towards his modelled price around $14. Second in line Angel Ayora has suffered a similar treatment from the layers, also drifting way out from a starting price in the high teens to his current $23, almost bang on with his modelled $24.
Youngster Casey Jarvis has been the most popular with bettors, who were clearly paying attention to his performance last week. He was right in the mix on Sunday before a quad bogey on the seventh scuttled his chances. With much less to catch him out on this week's layout it's no surprise punters are loading up. The model is less enamoured with him though and he's well short of a play.
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Winner) Thomas Aiken for 0.5 units (Rated at $72.00)
After finding a huge overlay on a South African journeyman last week I've dug up another to head up this week's plays. I'll be upfront, the short hitting Aiken is a horrible course fit, but at a price nearly double where the model has him pegged he's definitely worth a small spend of our Norris winnings!
BACK: (Winner) John Parry for 0.5 units (Rated at $24.50)
Another journeyman who has spent time on basically every lower league Tour going around, Parry seems to have found the secret sauce in 2024. He's parlayed some strong Challenge Tour form into a few big results on the Euro, culminating in a runner-up finish last week. Not a huge overlay but aside from Aiken it's a dry week for value for we'll take the overlay on the in-form player.
BACK: (Winner) Oliver Lindell for 0.25 units (Rated at $32.00)
Another Challenge Tour star, he doesn't have the wins but he's in the mix pretty much every time he picks up a club. With 9 straight starts of T12 or better in the minors, he's put together three solid performances on the big stage in the last month and should come in here full of confidence.
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