3 minute read
Welcome to Betfair’s home for golf betting tips! We’ve got free betting tips, plus course and player advice for golf events on the PGA and European Tour thanks to Betfair’s Golf Prediction Model. It is a proven source for big-priced winners for several years, tipping several big-priced winners and winning at +63.7% POT for the 2022 calendar year. Find the latest golf betting tips and expert advice every week on the Betfair Hub!
THIS WEEK'S EVENT
Welcome back punters for another season of data driven golf punting. I kicked back over the break so no major changes to the model that finished off 2024 with two big money winners on the trot.
For anyone coming to the column for the first time, the prediction model benchmarks player performance in each tournament relative to the strength of the field – beating a stacked Major field by a stroke is likely going to be worth more than toweling up a field of guys on the brink of losing their cards by 10.
For PGA events with Shotlink data available, I also break performances down into strokes gained categories. I've found that off the tee performance far is far more indicative of future play than all other categories. This basically means going well off the tee is due to inherent skill, while having a lights out week on the greens was probably due to luck.
Players also receive course specific adjustments based on their previous performances on that track but also based on how well their shots gained category strengths align with what has separated the wheat from the chaff on the course previously. This allows course adjustment to be made for players with little or even no history at a particular course.
Plays are based on a Kelly system comparing current market odds with what the model has predicted, with a tiny bit of gut feel overlaid where appropriate.
Anyway – enough with the nerd talk and onto the Sony Open. I missed the 2025 opener last week, but the Tour is staying in Hawaii as Waialae Country Club in Honolulu hosts a somewhat disappointing field following last week's shoot out at the Sentry. One of the shortest tracks on Tour rotation, the par-70 measures just 7,044 yards, but utilises smart design to defend itself from being overpowered.
Numerous twists and turns mean banging it long and straight isn't a great option and we'll likely see a fair bit of clubbing down off the tee. While the focus is on position, unless the wind really gets howling this isn't a particularly difficult track and even really poor efforts aren't punished anywhere near what they will be later in the year.
COURSE HISTORY AND FIT
With a whopping 48 rounds under his belt here, Chris Kirk is the standout from both a historic performance and experience perspective. He's played almost a shot per round better than expected here and will take in a hefty bump to his underlying skill rating. With similar sample sizes but not quite the same level of outperformance, Russell Henley and Ben Martin will also be getting handsome overlays.
Fit-wise we see distance off the tee receiving far less weight than an average week while accuracy also drops in importance. Given off the tee play is the key skill on Tour, this will benefit some real no-names – guys who hit it short and wide! The two most recognisable are Aussie Aaron Baddeley, who gives up a tonne of distance to the field most weeks, and Brandt Snedeker – another short knocker.
BETTING MARKETS
Pretty solid volumes coming through and you shouldn't have any trouble getting matched on anyone bar the bottom of the barrel names. After blitzing the field last week, Hideki comes in as favourite and the model agrees – however he's just a touch short compared to my numbers. Next in line is Corey Conners, a player who really needs to start winning some tournaments before he starts to doubt himself – he's about dead in line with where the model has him.
Not a huge amount of value across the rest of the top names but I'll be having a go at a player who has loved his time here as well as a sprinkling of real long shots.
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