3 minute read
The Manchester derby is the standout match of the round, although it is hard to recall a time when both sides were going so poorly. It really is a do-or-die fixture for both halves of the city.
Other highlights are a midlands derby between Forest and Villa, while Brentford will attempt to take some of that stellar home form to Stamford Bridge as they take on an in-form Chelsea.
ARSENAL v EVERTON
History: Everton won four of five between December 2020 and February 2023, but the pendulum has swung back, with Arsenal winning the last three encounters by an aggregate of 7-1.
Overview: Arsenal's title claims took another blow at Fulham when held 1-1 by their cross-town rivals. Now six adrift of Liverpool, and possibly nine after the Reds play their postponed game against Everton, so a stretch of wins looks essential if they are any hope of going one better in 24/25. A goal from a corner again saved the day – scoring in open play is becoming increasing difficult for the Gunners. Saka (2) and Havertz were on the scoresheet midweek in the Champions League so maybe things can turn around. However, on current form they are not the side they were in 23/24.
Everton missed the chance to meet Liverpool at home while on a high as a winter storm caused the postponement of their Merseyside derby. Save for the day they shipped four against Man U, Everton has not conceded more than one goal in a game in their last eleven. Worryingly, their form at Goodison is far better than on the road so this looks a difficult fixture for Sean Dyche's side who face a torrid fixture list over Xmas, with a run of eight matches against top ten sides starting with this one.
Suggested bet: Arsenal to win and Everton not to score: 3 units at $1.85.
LIVERPOOL v FULHAM
History: A match-up dominated by Liverpool, who has won ten and drawn three in the past 14 meetings in all competitions.
Overview: Liverpool recorded another Champions League success midweek away at Girona to stay atop of that ladder as well as the EPL. It was a good hitout for Slot's team after the clash with Everton was postponed. The Newcastle draw ten days ago was a bit of a wake-up call; Kelleher had a day to forget but Allison is now fit and back between the sticks. The Xmas fixtures look kind on paper, with the visit of Fulham and a trip to Tottenham the only stern tests between now and the New Year.
Fulham looked at their engagements at the start of the month with some trepidation, but have come through clashes with Spurs, Brighton and Arsenal with five points to maintain their lofty position. This is indeed the toughest test, possibly in world football at present. Except for that inexplicable hiccup at home to Wolves last month, the Cottagers have been competitive in every match this season and should give their hosts in this one a few headaches.
Suggested bet: Liverpool to win and both teams to score: 2 units at $2.65.
NEWCASTLE v LEICESTER
History: This was a good encounter for Leicester until recently. As the fortunes of the clubs have changed so have the results, with Newcastle winning three and drawing one of the last four meetings.
Overview: Newcastle's last home game, a 3-3 draw with Liverpool, was close to a season highlight for the Magpies. They dominated the Reds for half the game then, after squandering the lead, came back late to grab the equaliser. Another enthralling encounter followed at Brentford last weekend, but as is often the case on the road for Newcastle they were far too easy to open up and eventually fell 4-2. After a couple of clean sheets against Chelsea and Arsenal about six weeks ago, it has been a leaky defence since, conceding 12 in five games.
Leicester under Ruud Van Nistelrooy has managed to pick up four points in two games. The win over West Ham was odd as they were dominated for much of the game but managed to convert their chances while the Hammers blew many. At home to Brighton last weekend, they were dead and buried at 2-0 down with four to play but the evergreen Vardy was again in the thick of it and the Foxes showed true grit to snatch a draw. They travel for the first time under Ruud – it is worth noting that a 98th minute winner at Southampton is their only success away from the King Power this campaign.
Suggested bet: No bet.
WOLVES v IPSWICH
History: The only meeting since the 17/18 Championship season was in the Carabao Cup in September 2023 and was a 3-2 win to Wolves at Portman Road.
Overview: Wolves' next two games against fellow strugglers Ipswich and Leicester will shape their season. At the time of writing Gary O'Neil is in charge. Anything less than four points from these two fixtures could be the death knell for the gaffer and put Wolves in a very awkward position as the next ten games all look tough. Their effort at West Ham last Monday was better but that resilience in defence which saw better results in November has evaporated.
Ipswich's demise since picking up four points against Spurs and Man U last month sees them deep in trouble. Bournemouth were the better side but trailed at Portman Road until another late escape by the Cherries consigned Ipswich to a third straight defeat. Their last seven games have been drawn or decided by one goal, but they must turn the competitiveness into points in a hurry or this breakout season will slip away.
Suggested bet: No bet.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST v ASTON VILLA
History: The home ground advantage has been paramount in the four games since Forest's return to the top-flight. Forest has a draw and a 2-0 win at the City Ground, while Villa has recorded two comfortable wins on their patch.
Overview: Forest had lost three of four so there was a bit of pressure building for their trip to Old Trafford last weekend. Their effort therefore to prevail 3-2, adding to a long list of outstanding away results this season, cements their place in the top six. This side has some real attacking flair, and the aerial presence of Chris Wood is causing havoc. There is no fluke to their position on the table, and the visit of Villa who share fifth spot on 25 points is another acid test for Nuno's men.
Villa's fairytale Champions League campaign continued midweek with a victory in Germany over Leipzig. That followed consecutive wins in the league which ended a dire trot of eight in all competitions without a win. The Villains form on the weekend after a UCL commitment is interesting. The last four such matches have resulted in draws at home to Man U and Bournemouth, and losses away to Chelsea and Liverpool. Overall, one goal scored and six against. It seems most of the eggs are going in the European basket.
Suggested bet: Nottingham Forest to win: 2 units at $2.70.
BRIGHTON v CRYSTAL PALACE
History: Brighton won the corresponding fixture 4-1 last season, but prior to that it was tight. The ten preceding matches resulted in six draws and two wins apiece, all by a single goal.
Overview: After their win at Bournemouth in late November, Brighton sat in third with Southampton, Fulham and Leicester to come. Outright second and a challenge to Liverpool looked a possibility. But the Seagulls picked up just two points in those three games and now sit equal seventh. In the past two games they have conceded four goals after the 79th minute, with the two by Leicester in the dying stages last weekend particularly soft. They remain a European chance but need to play the full 90 minutes.
It has been an excellent month for Palace with a win over Ipswich and draws with Villa, Newcastle and Man City. The other encouraging factor is that the Eagles have now gone four games in all competitions without defeat away from Selhurst Park. Although they managed a couple against an uncharacteristically porous Man City last weekend, goals aren't plentiful in Palace matches at either end of the field. They, nor their opponents, have managed more than two in a game all season.
Suggested bet: Total match goals under 2.5: 2 units at $2.10.
MANCHESTER CITY v MANCHESTER UTD
History: Things have gone City's way of late. Since season 21/22, the blue half of Manchester was won seven of the nine meetings; one loss came at Old Trafford and the other in the 2024 FA Cup Final.
Overview: The Manchester City veneer of invincibility is wearing off. A 3-0 result over Forest is their only win in ten in all competitions, made worse by a 2-0 defeat at the hands of Juventus on Wednesday evening. The for-and-against during that run is an alarming 12-23. Rodri's absence is palpable – last season he played 50 games for City for one loss (FA Cup Final). Without him in 24/25 they have lost seven of 24. Walker is notably less effective; he has lost a yard of pace. There is a sense of staleness about the squad and with the losses comes a dip in confidence. If they need motivation to spring back to form, this derby is it.
Man U's positive start under Amorim has hit a couple of potholes with losses to Arsenal and Forest. The 3-2 defeat at home last weekend to Forest stung more as it happened in front of home fans against a side that hadn't won there in 30 years. They remain in the bottom half and after City they have Spurs away, Bournemouth, Newcastle, and Liverpool away in the next month. It doesn't get any easier. A trip to the Czech Republic on Thursday evening for a Europa League fixture might be seen as a chance to play their way into form.
Suggested bet: Draw: 1 unit at $4.50.
CHELSEA v BRENTFORD
History: Brentford have become a real thorn in Chelsea's side. Since the Bees' ascension into the EPL in 21/22 there have been six meetings, Chelsea winning the first at the Gtech then Brentford have won three of the next five, with two drawn. Remarkably, Chelsea has scored just four goals in those six encounters.
Overview: Chelsea's fine season continued last weekend when they came from two down to put Spurs away in a typically swashbuckling performance. Cole Palmer continues to amaze, and he thrives with a deeply talented squad surrounding him. The Blues problem is that they leak too many soft goals. Fortunately, of late, they are scoring more - 25 in the last seven in all competitions. But good defence wins leagues. If they can keep a few clean sheets in big matches, they can seriously challenge Liverpool.
If this was being played at the Gtech, an eight-goal thriller would not have been out of the question. Brentford at home have been electrifying this season, but on their travels a shadow of that side. Just one point in seven away games to date, conceding at least twice in six of them. It is a remarkable difference that, if sorted out by Thomas Frank, could see his side deep in the mix for a European spot.
Suggested bet: Chelsea to lead at half-time and full-time: 2 units at $2.00.
SOUTHAMPTON v TOTTENHAM
History: In the last three campaigns prior to Southampton's relegation in 22/23, Spurs won three of the six meetings, with two drawn. Goals have been plentiful – 28 in all at an average of 4.67.
Overview: Southampton was game but succumbed to a wonderful strike from Jhon Duran at Villa Park and slipped to their 12th loss from 15 this season. In the past ten seasons, two sides have had five points or less after 15 games and both stayed in last place – it is impossible to see a way clear for the Saints who may be on the brink of sacking manager Russell Martin.
Tottenham's fans are also losing patience with their boss. A 2-0 advantage was squandered in front of home support against Chelsea last weekend to add to a handful of disappointing results recently. Spurs' lack of consistency and a deteriorating home record sees them slip into the bottom half of the league, unimaginable for a side that has Champions League aspirations. A trip to Ibrox for a crucial Europa League clash with Rangers is a midweek distraction. Anything less than three points at St Marys might put Ange's job in jeopardy.
Suggested bet: Tottenham to win and both teams to score: 2 units at $2.60.
BOURNEMOUTH v WEST HAM
History: Bournemouth has struggled in this match-up recently. In the past three seasons, West Ham has won three times with the other three drawn. The Hammers also squeaked home 1-0 in a Carabao Cup encounter in August.
Overview: Bournemouth's indifferent start to the season is well and truly behind them. Three wins on the bounce, the latest a Houdini job at Ipswich where they were behind with three minutes left in ordinary time, sees them joint seventh. The five games including this one leading into the New Year look winnable – dare the Cherries dream of European football? They are a great side to watch, full of energy, beautiful passing, and some wonderfully talented individuals. Their rise as a force in the EPL is similar to Brighton's with whom they share a spot on the table.
West Ham nervously eked out a 2-1 win over fellow battlers Wolves at London Stadium on Monday to ease pressure on Lopetegui. The style of football still bothers fans, but a win here and they might elevate to be amongst a quartet midtable with Newcastle, Spurs and Man U – things aren't quite as bad as they seem considering the expectations of those three clubs. West Ham is one of the more pedestrian sides in the league, with only Bowen, Kudus and Somerville offering any spark. They face a vibrant opponent here and won't want any lead in the legs or they will go home with nothing.
Suggested bet: No bet.
