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Love EPL tips? Betfair's English Premier League Analyst provides his EPL tips and analysis for this week's football action. Betting strategies and previews available now.
TOTTENHAM V NEWCASTLE
Betting Strategy
Back (Over/Under 5.5 goals) Over 5.5 goals for 2 units @ $5.50
The season is already cooked for Spurs. No chance of a Champions League place now from 11th spot, and they are seven points off the places for Europe and are just losing and drawing far too many games. They could win or lose this game 4-0 or win or lose it 5-4. You just never know these days, but there will be goals. Probably a lot of them. There has been 37 goals in the past eight meetings between the sides. The game earlier this season ended 2-1 to Newcastle, and the three before that were 0-4, 4-1 and 1-6. In 10 home games this season for Spurs, there have been 44 goals and in Newcastle away games there has been 30 goals. In the past three home games, the half time scores were 2-1, 1-3 and 2-1 and for Newcastle away games, half time were 2-0, 3-0 and 2-2. So I have no clue who wins, probably Newcastle, but it won't end 0-0.
You can look at Over 1.5 first half goals, Over 2.5 first half goals, or the value I am looking at is in backing Over 5.5 goals in the game. It's a great price at 9/2 (5.50 on Betfair).
ASTON VILLA V LEICESTER
Betting Strategy
Back (Over/Under 2.5 goals) Over 2.5 goals for 2 units @ $1.60
Such a crucial game for Leicester. A win takes them to 17 points and above Wolves and Ipswich, and out of the relegation places, but still entrenched in the battle. A loss leaves them exposed to dropping further behind. They have lost the past two to Villa 1-2, but won before that 4-2. In nine meetings, both sides are 4-1-4 so it's very even with a draw unlikely. This season, Villa at home are 5-4-1 and Leicester away are 1-2-6 so it looks an uphill battle for a win away from home. Villa have won three of their past four home games beating Manchester City 2-1, Southampton 1-0 and Brentford 3-1. Before those four games were three draws, 2-2, 1-1 and 0-0 and the most recent game ended 2-2 with Brighton. Leicester have four straight away losses, and I am afraid this could well make it five straight away losses.
As for goals, the past four away for Leicester ended 1-3, 0-4, 1-4 and 0-3, and the past five at home for Brentford ended 2-2, 2-1, 1-0, 3-1 and 2-2, so we could easily back the Over 2.5 goals. With Aston Villa just $1.33 for the win, the $1.60 for the Over 2.5 is the better option.
BOURNEMOUTH V EVERTON
Betting Strategy
Lay (Over/Under 2.5 goals) Over 2.5 goals for 2 units @ $2.00
Everton are becoming a thorn in the side of a lot of teams. They have become very difficult to break down and score against. Bournemouth games have seen a lot of goals and Everton struggle against top six sides, which Bournemouth were until Newcastle won on Monday. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 8/11 Bournemouth home matches against bottom-six teams and Over 3.5 goals in 5/10 Bournemouth such matches. Everton have lost 7/8 away matches against top-six teams, and have no wins against top half sides. So far this season, they have five draws, two losses in seven games against top half teams. The three away games against top half sides, ended 1-1 (Manchester City), 0-0 (Arsenal), and 2-3 (Aston Villa).
Bournemouth have four wins and three draws in their past seven Premier League games, but the three draws were in the most recent four games. Their past four at home saw two draws (0-0 and 1-1) a 1-0 win and a 1-2 loss to Brighton. Head to Head past seven has seen five Bournemouth wins and two Everton wins with no draws, which is ironic as Everton would draw in a friendly against no opposition. The past three games ended 3-2, 2-1 and 0-3. Three of the past four meetings were 0-0 at half time. The past three home games all ended under 2.5 and 6/7 Everton away games all ended under and I see no reason for it to stop now. I am getting on the Under 2.5 goals.
MANCHESTER CITY V WEST HAM
Betting Strategy
Back (BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE) Yes at $1.80+
Manchester City are $1.33 against West Ham and I am so tempted to take that on. But surely they can't lose this game, it's West Ham, at the Etihad! Man City have won by two or more goals in 5/8 home matches against middle-third teams while West Ham have lost by two or more goals in 5/8 trips to top-six teams. Man City have won the first half in 7/10 home matches against middle-third teams. The Head to Head shows five straight City wins, seven wins in eight (one draw) and 9/11 wins with two draws. Not a West Ham win in sight. The past three games all ended 3-1 and the one before that was 3-0. That's 12-3 in just four games. This season at home, City have one win in four games, and are 5-2-2 for the season. West Ham away are 3-3-3 and have just two wins in their past eight away.
There only value I can find here is in the Both Teams to Score market and will look at backing Yes at $1.80. West Ham away games saw both teams score in 5/9 which is 56% and $1.80 so it's spot on. The City price for Both Teams to Score at home is $1.50 so we have a tiny bit of value there. There is not a lot else value wise as the market is so heavily weighted to a City win.
CRYSTAL PALACE V CHELSEA
Betting Strategy
Back (Match Odds) Chelsea for 3 units @ $2.00
Chelsea would have been looked at as a sure thing had they not lost 2-0 to Ipswich on Monday. They also lost 1-2 to Fulham and drew 0-0 with Everton, leaving them with one point from a possible nine and dropping eight points on leaders Liverpool, thus allowing Nottingham Forest to move to second and Arsenal to third. If Liverpool beat Everton in their postponed match, then 13 points is insurmountable. Even Forest would be 11 points behind, so the title is all but done. Anyway, I digress. In the last 11 Head to Head Crystal Palace have exactly zero wins, one draw and 10 losses. It was the most recent match, earlier this season where they got the draw. In the 10 losses, the aggregate score is 25-6. This season at home Palace have two wins, against Spurs and Southampton. They also have four draws and four losses. Chelsea away started with three away wins, then had a loss and a draw, then three more away wins, then a draw and then the loss against Ipswich.
In the past four Palace home games, both teams have scored. For Chelsea away, that has happened five times in seven games, but not the most recent two. They lost 0-2 to Ipswich and the 0-0 with Everton, yet they scored 11 goals in the three away games before that. I think they will bounce back here and will confidently back them to win at even money.
FULHAM V IPSWICH
Betting Strategy
Back (Both Teams to Score) Yes for 3 units @ $1.90
After beating Chelsea at home, Ipswich head to London in a buoyant mood. They will hold no fear about winning this one as well, and it would not be a shock to see them pick up three points. However, Fulham are not in eighth place by accident, and it will be a tough game. The value option is to look at goals and we can then cheer for both sides. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 8/11 Fulham home matches and in 5/9 Ipswich away matches. Ipswich have lost 3/5 away matches against top-half teams. In the 10 home games for Fulham, nine have seen both teams score. It is 6/9 away for Ipswich. The combined odds for that outcome is around $1.30 and it is $1.90 on Betfair for it to happen here, so that is enormous value. There has been a first half goal in 9/10 Fulham home games and a second half goal in 9/10 as well. Seven games went Over 2.5 so it is more likely than not we see at least three goals, and it's a pretty fair chance Ipswich will hit the back of the net at least once. The Over 2.5 goals is about $1.70 and that is also a great price if you want an alternative to look at.
LIVERPOOL V MANCHESTER UNITED
Betting Strategy
Back (Correct Score) Any Other Home Win for 3 units @ $3.50
It simply can't get any worse for Manchester United. They will lose this and, as incredible as it is to say, be in a relegation battle. If this ended with a 5-0 Liverpool win, nobody would be shocked. United are terrible. The new manager still does not know his best XI, and the players still don't get how he wants them to play. They are a total shambles and Liverpool could tear them to shreds at Anfield. Don't let the recent win against Manchester City fool you, as City are in a bad slump as well. Liverpool have won by two or more goals in 7/11 home matches while Man Utd have lost by two or more goals in 9/16 trips to top-six teams. Liverpool have won 9/11 home matches. The Head to Head in the past 11 games shows one Manchester United win. That's it. One. They have four draws and six losses. They have been losing at half time in three of the past four. The past three meetings (one this season and two last season) were 3-0, 2-2 and 0-0.
Manchester United are an embarrassing 10/1 to win this game. The draw is 6/1 and Liverpool are 1/3. I am going to head to the Correct Score market here and look for some value. I am backing Any Other Home win, which means I am saying Liverpool will win and score at least four goals in doing so. As long as they get four (or more) goals and win, we are golden. There's no other bet to make. Even the Over 2.5 goals is just $1.48. I said they were lambs to the slaughter last week, but that was just a preview against Newcastle, who just toyed with them second half as they had the game won. United have lost five of their past six Premier League games, with just a 2-1 win against Manchester City the only light in the tunnel. The past three games, they have lost 0-2, 0-2 and 0-3, so they can't even get a goal at the moment. Rubin Amorim could well be gone by the end of January, this job seems way too big for him. If he stays, United could go close to relegation. They are embarrassingly poor. I doubt they will go down, as Saints are already gone and Wolves, Leicester and Ipswich are struggling as much as United. But this is territory we haven't seen then in for decades.
WOLVES V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
Betting Strategy
Lay (Match Odds) Draw for 2 units @ $3.50
The options I was looking at here are goals or a lay of Wolves. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 9/11 Wolves home matches and in 6/10 Forest away matches against bottom-six teams. Nottingham Forest have scored first in 6/9 away matches against bottom-six teams. They are flying in second place, and whilst they won't catch Liverpool, a win here would take them a long way toward a Champions League berth. They can't afford to dream of playing with the big dogs and then lose a game like this. Looking at the Head to Head past five, they will be alarmed. Wolves have one win and four draws, so Forest have not been able to beat them. Scores were 1-1, 2-2, 1-1, 1-1 and 1-0. Nottingham Forest have won their past three away from home, 2-0 (Everton), 2-0 (Brentford) and 3-2 (Manchester United), and before that had back to back 0-3 losses to Manchester City and Arsenal. Wolves beat Manchester United at home 2-0, lost 1-2 (Ipswich), and 2-4 (Bournemouth), after beating Southampton 2-0.
With just one draw in nine home games, I am going to lay the draw, as I think this will be a very open game, and despite four of the last five meetings being draws, they were under different managers and Forest are a totally different proposition now, and Wolves are improving weekly now, winning the two games before their 2-2 with Spurs.
EPL TIPS
The English Premier League (EPL) is the number one football competition in England. It consists of the 20 best teams playing 38 home and away games with the season running from August through to May. Teams are awarded 3-points for a win, 1-point for a draw and no points for a loss with the winner of the league title being the team with the most points at the end of the season. With the best club football competition in the world fast approaching, Betfair wants to help you find a winner by providing expert English Premier League tips on the latest fixtures plus futures markets.
The EPL operates on a promotion and relegation system with the English Football League (EFL). The top-3 teams at the end of the EFL season are promoted to the EPL and the bottom-3 in the table are relegated to the EFL. The current list of teams in the EPL for the 2023/24 season are: Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Brighton and Hove Albion, Bournemouth, Burnley, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Everton, Fulham, Liverpool, Luton Town, Manchester City, Manchester United, Newcastle United, Nottingham Forest, Sheffield United, Tottenham Hotspur, West Ham and Wolverhampton Wanderers. Sign up to Betfair now to keep up to date with the latest EPL markets on Australia's largest betting exchange, and follow along on the Betfair Hub for our expert EPL tips, strategies and analysis.
To ensure you capitalise on the 2023/24 EPL season, be sure to follow Betfair's latest updated expert EPL tips across the entire season. Betfair's analysts provide head-to-head selections, total goals picks, goal scorer tips, advice on which individual players we think will play well, game previews, analysis plus much more!
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