3 minute read
Pakenham Cup day this week with the inaugural running of the Supernova.
We head to Nar Nar Goon for a new look Pakenham Cup day where the real headline is the 1400m Supernova, featuring the exciting and progressive Nadal.
He'd always threatened to be a good horse, the win at Caulfield first up in very fast time in a RAS rating of 110 certainly caught the eye, as did his loss at Flemington for the wrong reasons when badly held up.
I've been on the wrong side of him all campaign and that didn't change last start, worried out of a bet by a negative map on a fast Cranbourne track which Nadal sat back, got the racquet low and ripped an almighty forehand down the line to post a huge number.
He's gone to 120 there on the RAS scale which is getting right into Group 1 territory and I noted post-race that I'd love to see him at 1400m, which he now is.
He comes here against a couple off poor ones, namely Tuvalu and Here To Shock, who have the numbers to be competitive at their best, and a couple back in form like Welwal and Arkansaw Kid who shouldn't be discounted, but Nadal looks the one destined for the top level and we should be popping the champagne after Saturday's Supernova.
The other bet on the card, which we can (cowardly) call an each-way play, is Deakin in Race 5.
The money was there for him at Ballarat, his Australian debut, but 1600m was always going to be the query and I thought he did enough without the best of luck in the straight.
He ran to 93 there on the RAS scale but holds a peak of 105 at the Curragh when second to Crystal Black, a one-time Melbourne Cup fancy.
Out to 2000m now, drawn well, on the home deck, this looks a bit of a set play by Stokes and I thought you could mark him favourite, a couple of points shorter than the $6 being shopped.
The Melbourne Mail
Bet of the day: Race 8 #6 Nadal at $2.80
Each-way play: Race 5 #2 Deakin at $6/2.25
