3 minute read

The Inevitable bounced back last time, can he continue his winning form at Hobart?

We saw The Inevitable bounce back to winning form with a narrow victory in the Listed Conquering Stakes (1400m) at Launceston, and he now meets a very similar field at set weights for Friday's Listed Tasmanian Stakes (1600m).

He ran to a Timeform rating of 97 last time which is actually a regression from his fresh run when carrying 61kg in the Listed Tasmanian Newmarket (1200m).

We were keen to be with him at the $1.80 on offer at Ladbrokes in the Conquering and a similar price is on offer here, although given the ratings edge he had last time, the 0.1 length margin wasn't exactly the best watch.

There are two ways to look at that win. If you just took the margin of the win on face value it'd be very tough to mark him that short, but on the other hand, he's run to his lowest Timeform rating in over a year, his 97 rating just the second time he's dipped below 100 in 18 starts, and still won.

Looking at his ratings at 1600m specifically, he was actually beaten in this race last year as a $1.20 chance, only managing fourth (beaten 0.4 lengths) by First Accused. The Inevitable did run to 102 on Timeform's scale that day, while his previous four 1600m runs were all in elite level races in Melbourne or Sydney and rated 116-111-114-118.

The one that almost knocked him off in the Conquering Stakes was Thespian Waters who burst through late to just miss, matching the winning rating of 97, a new career peak.

He's an obvious second favourite and a chance of turning the tables if The Inevitable finds a bit of bad luck, but red odds are certainly a correct assumption about The Inevitable's chances.

Out to 1600m potentially suits the champ better than Thespian Waters who hasn't been stretched over a mile yet, although given the way he finished off last time there's no reason to suggest he won't appreciate it as well.

As can be the case in these races with more or less the same group of horses competing, it's a very similar story trying to find a bet. The Inevitable is clearly the horse to beat again.

The opening price of $2.10 with Ladbrokes was more than fair while the current quote of $1.85, slightly bigger than last time, is probably still just a touch of overs.

Tasmanian Stakes 2024

Tip: #1 The Inevitable - $1.85 at Ladbrokes