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The move to Moonee Valley will be of no concern to promising mare Lake Sententia when she steps out in race eight of today’s monster ten race card, the City Jeep Handicap (2040m).
Photo by Racing and Sports
After a last start listed success in Adelaide a return to take on the handicapper here would seem a touch conservative but it does highlight one of the clear holes in the Australian Pattern.
Lake Sententia has put together a handy record in her short career to date, winning 5 of her 11 starts, with her form particularly promising at a mile and beyond.
After making a good impression over a mile at Bendigo on October last year Lake Sententia earned the famous Timeform “p” for the first time when stepping out at today’s course and distance.
A five-length beating of stakes-placed mare Khandallah, fresh off a career best effort herself, caught the eye and saw Lake Sententia flagged as one to follow
She confirmed that impression 15 days later running second in the Group 2 Matriarch Stakes, the form having a solid look about it despite the favourite and best-performed mare in the race, Silent Achiever, running below par in fourth.
Bizarrely the Matriarch is the only race run in Australia at either Group One or Group Two level for mares at 2000m or beyond despite there being half a dozen such races for three-year-old fillies, five at the top level.
The failure of the Australian Pattern to provide a clear framework in which to define champions over a range of categories costs racing dearly in its quest for more recognition in the mainstream.
Identifying champions over a broad range of categories is easily achievable using Timeform ratings but for those on the fringes or outside of the game the value of form doesn’t necessarily translate.
Unfortunately the pattern seems to be going further down the path of “more of the same” with recent Group One additions the Moir, Memsie and Canterbury Stakes doing little more than handing out more top line success to those in the same category.
The reasoning given for this is that the races are being upgraded purely on the handicapper’s ratings.
While there is a fair argument for the best races being afforded the top billing, if we are to completely follow that line of thinking the Australian Pattern will soon be nothing but a sea of weight-for-age sprints.
After the Matriarch it would be nice to think that those mares could return in the autumn and lock horns again to identify the best middle distance horse in the land from the fairer sex.
The clearest way to do this would be to open the Queensland Oaks up four-year-olds as is the case with the Yorkshire Oaks in the UK.
Mares coming off the Queen of the Turf, Emancipation or Epona Stakes in the Sydney autumn could push on up to Queensland for the Doomben Roses and Oaks to take on the younger generation coming through Oaks races in Sydney, Adelaide and New Zealand.
Which no such option available Lake Sententia returned with a couple of solid efforts in handicaps over 1400m before going to Adelaide for the Group Two Queen of the South over a mile.
There she hit the line strongly, overcoming some difficulty in running, to finish third. The effort rated just short of her Matriarch form in the spring.
The step up to 2000m again brought about improvement with the Listed Centaurea Stakes, again in Adelaide, seeing her well placed despite giving weight away to all bar one.
Lake Sententia was left to race wide throughout but was still strong to the line, finding enough to hold out the useful Epingle and win, running right up to her peak rating of 106 with the promise of more to come.
It would have been nice to see if she could have stepped up on that form in the Queensland Oaks won by Gondokoro where the feeling is she would have run into the money.
A far softer assignment is on the cards today for Lake Sententia, and it is one that she is expected to prove up to.
Her main rivals appear to be jumpers Black and Bent and Kirribilli Gold, both who should find her too slick at this trip, and Harry Trimbole who is roughly two years between wins.
The Chris Waller trained Secessio might in fact throw down the biggest challenge, receiving 2.5kgs from the mare on the back of a solid fourth at Flemington last time out.
Lake Sententia trades around the $3 mark, though, and that looks more than a fair gamble for a mare with her form in the book.
