3 minute read

Sir Andrew is a like a coiled spring ready to unleash in Saturday's Winter Championship Final.

In three runs on this side of the Tasman things are yet to really work out for Sir Andrew but he has continued to shape as though there is a big shot in the locker, and his form on the other side of the Tasman points to that being the case.

It's his Hawkes Bay Guineas win that should peak the interest of most form students, despite the fact that it was well over a year ago now.

It is true that Sir Andrew's Hawkes Bay Guineas was a low-rating edition of the race, but it is a race that has been a springboard to plenty of good horses over the years and its here that we arrive at an important tool in the handicappers kit bag - race standardisation.

Race standardisation is, basically speaking, taking past runnings of a race and laying the current result/margins over the top to offer up a range of possible values.

It works on the theory that while the strength of races can vary from year to year they are generally pulling on the same pool of horses and therefore rate within a fairly tight range of values.

Using race standardisation in conjunction with the collateral form of the runners in the race (along with a handful of other techniques) is a great tool for keeping ratings in line and pushes away from flawed ideas such as rating races around 'line horses'.

Race standardisation techniques pointed to Sir Andew's Hawkes Bay Guineas win falling within a ratings range of 101-110 on Timeform's scale.

The form around him on that day (plus the time, subsequent form etc) pointed to the top of that range being too high for Sir Andrew, but even a rating at the base end of that range of values would leave Sir Andrew looking well placed today.

Sir Andrew has run to 88, 93 and 93 in three runs this campaign, ratings that measure up solidly here, but it's the promise of a return to that range of values from Hastings that has us thinking that the $4.50 currently on offer is going to look like very good shopping come Saturday afternoon.

For an each-way play we look to the second race on the card, the listed Creswick Series Final.

Husson Eagle is a fairly smart customer, and the horse to beat in our view, but at $11.00 it's certainly worth having Valderrama running for us.

He impressed on debut, looking up to much better things when winning at Geelong, and he was very brave at just his second start at the Valley last time, sticking on best of the on-pace horses in a race where they overdid things from the front.

He's got his share of talent and it would be no surprise to see him go on improving here.

THE MELBOURNE MAIL:

Bet of the day: Race 7 #12 Sir Andrew @ $4.50

Each way play: Race 2 #7 Valderrama @ $11.00