3 minute read

Winter racing is back in full swing at Belmont on Saturday with the return to the more spacious circuit commencing this weekend.

In what can prove a testing transition period with the form generally taking a couple of weeks to simmer down.

While not set in stone it is no secret that some horses perform better at Ascot than Belmont and vice versa.

This can result in same fairly rough results as horses can suddenly come into form or in other cases horses drop out of form.

This Saturday's eight race card throws up five short priced favourites, three of which are odds-on (Vega Magic, Military Reign and Celebrity Dancer).

While all three appear very likely winners, Military Reign is the only one of the three we could entertain as a betting proposition (value at the price)

Currently installed a $1.80 chance in the third event the daughter of Universal Ruler has clearly returned in great order and comes into this event with the highest last start figure (weight adjusted).

In the small field she looks set to dictate freely in front and given she is unbeaten at this track suddenly she appears a very likely winner.

The Wizard sticks aboard and while appearing short enough on the surface, we have her marked closer to a $1.60 chance and hence there is value in her current quote (7% gap).

No knock on either Vega Magic or Celebrity Dream however the pair appear rock bottom odds at their respective quotes ($1.35 & $1.60) and hence there is no value in their prices.

In the sixth event all eyes are likely to be on former New Zealand based filly Presentatie who now is in the care of Grant Williams.

Unbeaten in two starts (combined winning margin: 9.3L) she is clearly quite the talent and remains a big watch in her Australian debut.

Heavily supported in the early markets she looks set to sprint well fresh however as a result we feel there is a decent bet in the Chris Gangemi trained Twelve Rounds.

On the bare form there isn't a lot between the pair and we feel the price discrepancy between the two is too great.

Presentatie may be a star however we are not willing to take close to even money to find out.

At the each-way odds more than happy to side with Twelve Rounds from the inside draw.

As a side note, TopBetta will offer a minimum of $25K for Saturday Metro Mayhem and while Ascot won't play a part it is definitely worth checking out - Click Here .

BET OF THE DAY (1): Race 3 #2 Military Reign @ $1.80

BET OF THE DAY (2): Race 6 #10 Twelve Rounds @ $5.00