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Liesele is back in town after a spring excursion to Melbourne and looks to have found a perfect race at Doomben on Saturday.
The Liam Birchley mare has come back in arguably career-best form this time in, winning the Listed Alinghi Stakes (1100m) resuming at Caulfield and then finishing within three lengths of Dystopia at Flemington in the Group 3 GH Mumm Stakes (1100m) on Oaks day.
It proved a fruitful trip south for Birchley, who also picked up the Group 3 Thoroughbred Club Stakes with Missy Longstocking last month.
Liesele should simply prove too classy in tomorrow’s Travel Associates Classic (1200m) back up at Doomben where she’s won four times before.
She’s also saluted four times over this trip and gets in nicely today carrying 56.5kg, thanks to Doubtfilly sitting at the top of the weight scale with 2kg more on her back.
I’d expect jockey Glen Colless to find a handy spot from barrier five from where she should get every chance in the straight.
The only one in this line up to match Liesele for class is resuming Kelly Schweida mare Discreet, who comes back off a 126-day spell for this.
She’s also a four-time winner here and loves this trip, but if there’s a knock on her it’s that she can take a bit of time to warm up early in her campaign.
In four racing preparations only once has she collected a win in her first two runs back from a spell.
She trialled here on November 12 so should be fit enough, and carries the same weight as Liesele but I’m happy to go with the third-up Birchley mare.
Words Are Weapons up here from the Sam Kavanagh yard is the other one to watch.
She was only a head behind Field Marshall resuming at Randwick and I’d expect her to go to a new peak today which would make her very competitive.
That being said, I can’t go past the $3.30 being offered about Liesele.
The feature on the card today is the Tattersall’s Recognition Stakes and I think we can go back to the well with Fillydelphia.
She bolted in for us paying $12 two weeks ago, and the bookies certainly won’t make that mistake again.
Fillydelphia has gone up a $4.20 shot and I still think that’s very juicy off her last run.
She finished 3.5L clear at Eagle Farm a fortnight ago up to 1400m for the first time this campaign, and should only improve now up to the mile.
Her last run over the mile was a narrow second placing to Alma’s Fury in the Listed Timeform Bernborough Handicap about 11 months ago at this track where she was beaten a head after being blocked for a run.
A week earlier Alma’s Fury was beaten a nose in the Group 2 Villiers Stakes (1600m) at Warwick Farm, and at his next start he claimed the Group 2 Apollo Stakes (1400m).
Fillydelphia’s latest run rates just three pounds shy of that performance against Alma’s Fury, and there’s no reason why she can’t improve again today.
She’s won here six times in the past, and can boost that tally up to seven today.
Tony Gollan’s Listen Son will take some catching as usual. He won a race at this course and distance two back leading all the way then only narrowly missed back to 1300m at Eagle Farm four weeks ago.
He’s as tough as they come although I think Fillydelphia will have his measure today.
Black Cash also deserves respect after narrowly winning the greys’ race on Crown Oaks day at Flemington.
He’s won three of four this campaign but can be a shade inconsistent and doesn’t quite rate as well as Fillydelphia anyway.
Stick with the classy Heathcote mare.
The one we’re taking on today is Poste Restante, who broke a lengthy winless run with a four-length romp at Eagle Farm two weeks ago over 2400m.
She goes around again today in race 2 over 2200m, and these staying races have proved to be a bit of a merry-go-round over the past few months.
Poste Restante has come up at $2.35 and I couldn’t possibly back her at that price.
The first concern for mine is the 59kg she’s been slugged. She’s never carried that weight before, and it means she’s giving weight to a few hardened geldings who will fancy their chances today.
My other query is that she’s always preferred things at Eagle Farm.
Mukaddamah Son was 4.1L off her there two weeks ago but enjoys a handy weight swing today and can turn the tables.
Raeburn meanwhile is back from a Melboune spring where he finished 7.2L off Precedence in the Group 2 Moonee Valley Cup (2500m). That form might just be strong enough to win this race.
It might just pay to stick with the boys in this one, although it’s not an overly inspiring race to be perfectly frank.
BANKER: Race 5 No 2 Liesele @ $3.30
PLAY OF THE DAY: Race 7 No 2 Fillydelphia @ $4.20
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 2 No 2 Poste Restante @ $2.35
