3 minute read
The rail is true and the track is good at Caulfield. Ideal conditions for racing and, most importantly, for punting.
Rail true and good ground at Caulfield typically provides the perfect risk/reward scenario.
Those talented and brave enough to risk pushing forward are suitably rewarded for doing so at Caulfield.
Racing And Sports' database is accessible to all and clearly shows the benefit of being positive at Caulfield: Click here to see statistics for Caulfield
The position in-running statistics under the 1400m tab show that of the last 697 horses to lead at the 400m mark 22.2% have gone on to win the race. 15.2% of those running second have won, 12.5% of those running third and so on.
The course rewards speed and Charmed Harmony arrives in race 8 at Caulfield today with plenty of it.
He was last seen putting that speed on display 35 days ago over the same course and distance when finishing second in the Victoria Handicap to Black Heart Bart.
He forced what was near enough to a Group 1 performance out of Bart, ripping along from the front and setting up an overall time of 1:21.27.
A further scroll down the 1400m tab of the Caulfield course stats shows that time to be in fairly rare air - in-fact Exceed And Excel is the only horse sitting on a sharper time in a feature around the Caulfield 1400m in recent times.
Raw times say more about the prevailing conditions than the horses racing in them but that time is quick whichever way you slice or dice it and Black Heart Bart has since gone on to confirm it a fairly smart piece of form by running a narrow second in the Group 1 All Aged Stakes up in Sydney.
If Charmed Harmony turns up and romps around his favourite course and distance on Saturday as quickly as he can then his rivals, headed up by Sistine Demon and Enquare who combine for 26 winless runs coming into the race, will be left gasping for air.
He's bigger than 2/1 to give his running, but looks far more likely than that off what is an ideal set up for him - kept fresh.
Sistine Demon and Enquare are not the only horses hard in the market off long winless streaks on Saturday.
Orujo is currently around the $4 mark despite not having won in 14 starts and that should open up betting options away from him in race 3.
One we think should be kept onside is My Poppette. Good trainer, good jockey, good horse, $12?
She will be better over further than 1100m but she kicked off a good spring campaign with an eye-catching run over 1100m behind Petits Filous in very sharp figures and a repeat of that back against much lesser opposition today would have to see her go close.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet Of The Day: Race 8 #1 Charmed Harmony @ $3.20
Each Way Play: Race 3 #2 My Poppette @ $12.00
